His Master's Voice

Now Syria has added its thoughts to the Lebanese question, I'm sure we all feel much better. The beautifully choreographed show that was Assad's speech was reminiscent of good old pre-1989 Soviet politburo speeches - all show and no substance. He did, however, plant the seed in the masses' minds that the Lebanese government's attempts to disarm Hezbollah will lead to civil war, subtly trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy - more mind games from the masters. All that's needed is another speech by Midgeto the mad Iranian for a hateful hat trick.

At least the other idiots are still fairly quiet in Lebanon.....Aoun, Geagea, Gemayel et al. Although not a fan of his in any way, I am looking forward to Jumblatt's speech tomorrow even if it turns out to merely be comic relief.
"We will not surrender to Assad's & Nasrallah's conditions" is just a great title for a speech - a little long but there can be no wondering about the content. He seems to have become the government's pit bull, saying the things everyone wants to but diplomatically can't. Either way, it couldn't be more damaging than Nasrallah's or Assad's. And you know he'll certainly put a lot more flair into it.

So where do we go from here? What's the next step? Hezbollah has said that it would not leave the area south of the Litani river and that the issue of its arms is non-negotiable. The deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south could, if Hezbollah follows Syrian wishes to play on sectarianism, lead to if not civil war then to a split in the army, many soldiers possibly choosing to side with Hezbollah rather than be forced into a situation where they may have to engage their compatriots. A division in the army along sectarian lines is not something new and would play right into the hands of Syria.

Iran wants nothing out of Hezbollah except to use them as a proxy army in their ongoing nuclear ambitions. The Hezbollah threat will always keep Israel on the hook and under threat and by extension, Dubya, because of his paranoia of seeing terrorists everywhere - much like Senator McCarthy's seeing "Communists under the bed". So far, using Hezbollah to fight Israel hasn't brought any international repercussions to Tehran although that could possibly change. Osirak anyone?

I cannot see our government demanding that Hezbollah disarm but a strongly-worded statement of intent needs to be issued - the outline and mechanics can be worked out later. Bring the long-neglected Shia in the south back into the fold and under our government's care.
If we shout loud enough about it, Syria could be forced into making an ours-or-theirs decision on the Shebaa farms, then we could demand an Israeli withdrawal and in turn remove all of Hezbollah's stated "raisons d'être". The key is in removing all of the obstacles as fast as Hezbollah can think them up.

And on that very same day, reports will emerge that Hell has frozen over.