Thursday, August 17, 2006

His Master's Voice

Now Syria has added its thoughts to the Lebanese question, I'm sure we all feel much better. The beautifully choreographed show that was Assad's speech was reminiscent of good old pre-1989 Soviet politburo speeches - all show and no substance. He did, however, plant the seed in the masses' minds that the Lebanese government's attempts to disarm Hezbollah will lead to civil war, subtly trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy - more mind games from the masters. All that's needed is another speech by Midgeto the mad Iranian for a hateful hat trick.

At least the other idiots are still fairly quiet in Lebanon.....Aoun, Geagea, Gemayel et al. Although not a fan of his in any way, I am looking forward to Jumblatt's speech tomorrow even if it turns out to merely be comic relief.
"We will not surrender to Assad's & Nasrallah's conditions" is just a great title for a speech - a little long but there can be no wondering about the content. He seems to have become the government's pit bull, saying the things everyone wants to but diplomatically can't. Either way, it couldn't be more damaging than Nasrallah's or Assad's. And you know he'll certainly put a lot more flair into it.

So where do we go from here? What's the next step? Hezbollah has said that it would not leave the area south of the Litani river and that the issue of its arms is non-negotiable. The deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south could, if Hezbollah follows Syrian wishes to play on sectarianism, lead to if not civil war then to a split in the army, many soldiers possibly choosing to side with Hezbollah rather than be forced into a situation where they may have to engage their compatriots. A division in the army along sectarian lines is not something new and would play right into the hands of Syria.

Iran wants nothing out of Hezbollah except to use them as a proxy army in their ongoing nuclear ambitions. The Hezbollah threat will always keep Israel on the hook and under threat and by extension, Dubya, because of his paranoia of seeing terrorists everywhere - much like Senator McCarthy's seeing "Communists under the bed". So far, using Hezbollah to fight Israel hasn't brought any international repercussions to Tehran although that could possibly change. Osirak anyone?

I cannot see our government demanding that Hezbollah disarm but a strongly-worded statement of intent needs to be issued - the outline and mechanics can be worked out later. Bring the long-neglected Shia in the south back into the fold and under our government's care.
If we shout loud enough about it, Syria could be forced into making an ours-or-theirs decision on the Shebaa farms, then we could demand an Israeli withdrawal and in turn remove all of Hezbollah's stated "raisons d'être". The key is in removing all of the obstacles as fast as Hezbollah can think them up.

And on that very same day, reports will emerge that Hell has frozen over.

5 comments:

ghassan said...

Desmond,
Another well crafted opinion that goes to the heart of the matter. Excellent work.

Anonymous said...

While Hezbollah is out there busting their ass to fix the damage done by Israeli terrorists, you worthless and lazy pieces of garbage are blogging garbage. What a waste of a person.

Anonymous said...

Anon - Hezballah fixing the damage done by Israeli terrorists? Boy you are well beyond any hope. Did it ever occur to you that none of this would have happened if we didn't have an armed militia in our country? Did it ever occur to you that we would have never seen the devastation we see today if it wasn't for Hezballah kidnapping 2 soldiers?

And don't pull off the ridiculous Shebaa famrs excuses. Whether Shebaa farms is Lebanese or not remains to be debated, but what is clear is that the UN, International law, says it isn't Lebanese. Period. You want to make it Lebanese? tell your friends over in Syria to officially tell the UN it is Lebanese. Otherwise you have no argument.

And don't pull off the three lousy prisonners in Israeli jails card either, one of which cracked the head of a baby open with his rifle butt. That's what we're fighting for? tfouh! I want no part of it.

Abide to the law. The law says Hezballah must be disarmed. Period.

Battal Agha said...

You will see ya Chabeb, life is going to beautiful under the rule of the AL JOUMHOURIYYA AL ISLAMIYYA AL LOUBNANIYYA (Iran Branch), with Sharia, Hejab etc etc.

Anonymous said...

Nasrallah, demonstrably, believes that the Israeli response was proportionate.

At no time did the destruction and death in Lebanon ever approach the value of those two Israeli soldiers. In fact, one has to wonder just how many homes and lives Nasrallah would have gleefully sacrificed to keep those two.

With those two soldiers, he can raise millions in money, buy thousands of rockets, recruit hundreds of followers.

If he lost those two soldiers, none of your home or lives would do that for him. Not all of your homes and lives would do that for him.

Israel's response was disproportionately small.